GENERAL • Oct 17, 2025
The Capacity Bubble
3 minutes read
https://blog.driverseo.com/the-capacity-bubble-a2750307
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There are too many trucks chasing too few loads. That’s the “capacity bubble.” It started in 2020–2022 when freight was hot and money was cheap. A lot of new trucks and small carriers jumped in. Then freight cooled. The trucks didn’t leave as fast as they came in. Rates fell and got stuck.
Now a few things are making it even tougher:
- Rules are tighter. The government is checking driver English skills more closely and is cracking down on fake companies and identity scams. Paperwork matters more. Mistakes cost time and money.
- Trucks cost more. New tariffs and higher prices make new equipment expensive. Big carriers can handle that easier than small ones as they spread out cost.
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Demand isn’t saving us yet. Holiday season might show a slow down so be prepared.
So what happens? Middle-of-the-road carriers get squeezed. The winners are either very focused or very big.
If you run a small fleet, you still have a clear path. It just takes focus and clean operations.
Pick a lane.
Stop trying to be everything to everyone. Choose a region, a few steady customers, or one type of freight you know well. Be the best at that small thing. Know the docks. Know the hours. Know the people. Make your service predictable.
Stop trying to be everything to everyone. Choose a region, a few steady customers, or one type of freight you know well. Be the best at that small thing. Know the docks. Know the hours. Know the people. Make your service predictable.
Make compliance a strength.
Treat safety and paperwork like part of the product you sell. Keep driver files updated. Keep electronic logging devices (ELDs) current and on the accepted list. Answer roadside issues fast. When shippers see clean records, they trust you with better freight. Drive Solutions is there if you need a hand.
Protect your identity.
Scams are up. Bad actors steal company info, forge documents, and move freight under your name. Lock every account with multi-factor authentication. Limit who can log in. Keep a simple log of who changes what. If anyone asks you to “transfer” an inspection or change company data, reject it. Verify your SMS data through the official FMCSA portal or Drive Solutions Safety tab. No shortcuts.
Scams are up. Bad actors steal company info, forge documents, and move freight under your name. Lock every account with multi-factor authentication. Limit who can log in. Keep a simple log of who changes what. If anyone asks you to “transfer” an inspection or change company data, reject it. Verify your SMS data through the official FMCSA portal or Drive Solutions Safety tab. No shortcuts.
Know your numbers.
Weekly, not monthly. What’s your cost per mile, loaded and empty? What’s your break-even rate? Which lanes pay and which drain? Cut deadhead. Cut wait time. If a lane loses money three weeks in a row, fix it or drop it.
Weekly, not monthly. What’s your cost per mile, loaded and empty? What’s your break-even rate? Which lanes pay and which drain? Cut deadhead. Cut wait time. If a lane loses money three weeks in a row, fix it or drop it.
Be easy to work with.
Answer the phone. Give honest ETAs. If you miss, say so early. Send a simple follow-up after every load with times and any issues. Reliability beats “cheap” in the long run.
Answer the phone. Give honest ETAs. If you miss, say so early. Send a simple follow-up after every load with times and any issues. Reliability beats “cheap” in the long run.
Decide who you want to be.
Two good choices:
Two good choices:
- A polished micro-carrier: small, focused, tight lanes, great service, spotless paperwork.
- Part of something bigger: partner up or sell when it makes sense. You gain buying power, back office help, and steady freight.
The wrong choice is to stand in the middle and hope rates rise “soon.” Hope is not a plan.
A note on fraud and “DataQs.”
DataQs is a government system to fix bad inspection records. It’s useful. But scammers sometimes try to dump their violations onto clean carriers by faking transfers. Don’t accept any change to your records unless you can confirm it yourself. If you didn’t file it, contest it. If you utilize overseas service providers inquire to them about security measures they have in place. If possible establish your own safety department domestically.
DataQs is a government system to fix bad inspection records. It’s useful. But scammers sometimes try to dump their violations onto clean carriers by faking transfers. Don’t accept any change to your records unless you can confirm it yourself. If you didn’t file it, contest it. If you utilize overseas service providers inquire to them about security measures they have in place. If possible establish your own safety department domestically.
Big carriers sell capacity. Small carriers sell trust. Protect it with reliable end to end service.